Connect with us

Detroit Red Wings

How Red Wings Can Silence Doubters, Exceed Expectations

Published

on

Moritz Seider, Red Wings

FanDuel shows the Red Wings at +5000 to win the Stanley Cup this season. That’s a 1.97% probability. The Athletic projects Coach Derek Lalonde’s team to finish with 81 points. Only six teams are below them in the projected overall standings.



BetMGM says there is a 63% (-170) chance that Detroit won’t make the playoffs.

That’s a profile that comes with being a team that hasn’t qualified for the playoffs since 2016. It’s the regular pessimism associated with a rebuilding team. But those facts and doomsday feelings don’t represent how the Red Wings feel about their own chances of appearing in the 2025 playoffs.

Detroit’s quest to join the ranks of postseason participants begins tonight when they play the Pittsburgh Penguins at Little Caesars Arena (8 p.m., Bally Sports). Like the Red Wings, the Penguins’ late-season bid to qualify for the playoffs fell short last season.

Building Off Last Season

“I think the guys are motivated,” Lalonde said. “I think they saw what it looked like, what it took. Obviously, we didn’t handle Dylan’s injury very well. We were barely competitive some nights without Dylan. We’ll have to be better in those situations. Some of those ups and downs and how important it is you’re battling for every point. I think it was a lesson learned.”

The Red Wings tied the Washington Capitals in points (91) for the final playoff spot but lost the tiebreaker.

Considering Detroit was 4-10 when captain Dylan Larkin was injured, it was easy to start a list of how the Red Wings could find an extra point or two. They all want to believe this team is improved, embracing a stronger commitment to keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Last season, the Red Wings surrendered four or more goals in 39 of 82 games. That was 47.5 % of the time.

“The reality of it, we sat here last year coming off an 80-point season, and no one had us in the playoffs,” Lalonde said. “I understand it. It was a little motivation for our group. I thought they pushed. We improved 11 points. But when you get to the brink, as a natural step you have to take, of course, expectations have changed. It’ll be a little different challenge for our group, how we ride some highs and lows, but I still think it’s about taking care of your game in the moment.”

The Red Wings keep talking about upgrading their defensive play. Their commitment sounds real. A healthy Ville Husso will help. Young defensemen Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson should help.

Finding More Goals

“I think there’s an emphasis, a little bit more of an emphasis, some slight changes system-wise,” defenseman Jeff Petry said. “And I think the message is kind of similar to what it was last year. We have guys that can put the puck in the net. You know we have the skill up front to get that done. So, our main focus is to make sure we’re strong defensively, keeping the puck out of our net and getting it up to those guys so they can do their thing. ”

The Red Wings were a top-10 scoring team last season, while they ranked 24th in goals-against. There concern that they will improve defensively, but their scoring will fall off because they lost 75 goals through free agency and trades.

They need free-agent acquisition Vladimir Tarasenko to score 25-plus goals and their other top six forwards (Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, J.T. Compher, and Patrick Kane) to score just a bit more than last season. They also need point man Erik Gustafsson to make up for Shayne Gostisbehere’s lost production on the power play.

There is thought that everything would have to go right for the Red Wings to have a true chance, including suffering no significant injuries.

Blowing Up Projections

The truth is that none of the projections, odds, or projections mean anything. Everyone in Detroit certainly understands that because the Detroit Tigers supposedly had a next-to-nothing chance of making the postseason. Now, they are one win short of qualifying for the American League championship series.

“They’ve come out of nowhere,” said Petry, son of former Detroit Tigers pitcher Dan Petry. “Their chances down the stretch were very slim, and they found a way to get it done. And playing that kind of gritty baseball and unconventional baseball with the way they’re rolling with their pitching staff, but it seems to be working, and the confidence, seems like it’s really high in that room. “

The Red Wings are looking for that level of confidence, especially early when they play the Penguins, and then the New York Rangers and Nashville Predators twice each in the first five games. Confidence may be as important as the goals.