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Red Wings Will Have a Small Shot at Winning Draft Lottery

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Connor Bedard, Canada

The Vancouver Canucks’ 3-2 win against the Anaheim improved the Detroit Red Wings’ odds to land Connor Bedard to five percent.

At least for now.

Detroit currently is 24th place overall, which would give them the ninth best lottery odds. If Detroit stay there, it would have a five percent chance of picking Bedard at No. 1. The team would have a 5.4% shot at picking No. 2 overall. The most likely result: Drafting 9th overall. If the standings don’t change, they have a 64.4% chance of getting that No. 9 pick, a 23.5% shot at picking 10th and a 1.7% chance of falling to 11th.

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Bedard is a Canadian-born center who is considered a generational player.  He had 71 goals and 147 points in 57 games for the Regina Pats in the Western Hockey League this season. The Pats recently were knocked out the WHL playoffs.

Most teams would be happy to land the No. 2-rated player , Adam Fantilli, a 6-foot-2 forward from the University of Michigan. He recently won the Hobey Baker as college hockey’s best player.

Red Wings Can Fall to 11th

But the draft lottery odds are far from settled. If Detroit loses Tampa Bay in regulation, and Washington beats New Jersey, then the Red Wings would fall into 25th place. That would give the Red Wings a six percent chance of winning Bedard and 54.4% shot at drafting eighth. That’s where the Detroit drafted Marco Kasper last season. He’s projected to eventually be a top two line center.

The 2023 draft is considered to be deeper than last season’s draft. A player drafted No. 9 or No. 10 this year might have gone earlier in last year’s draft.

Detroit could end up 23rd — 10th from the bottom — if the Red Wings beat Tampa Bay and Vancouver loses to Arizona on Thursday. At 23rd,  GM Steve Yzerman’s team would have a 3.5% shot at Bedard. There’s even a chance the Red Wings finish 22nd.  St. Louis would need to lose both of their games.  Vancouver would also have to lose and Detroit win against Tampa Bay. That would drop the Red Wings to a three percent shot at Bedard.